April 11, 2013 Severe Weather Event

10 04 2013

We have been watching the system that is slowly moving our way and strengthening at the same time. Ever since yesterday we were able to figure out the timing of the event which is from late tomorrow morning to tomorrow night. The hardest part up to today was determining the highest threat. We, and many others agree, have decided that the biggest threats are damaging winds, flooding, and, unfortunately, tornadoes. There is a threat for some hail, but it is lower than the other threats.

We were able to breakdown tomorrow by certain hours and give you the areas that will likely see the highest impact from the severe weather. The following image shows the area with the highest threat of seeing severe weather tomorrow morning at 10 AM.

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At this time, the threats could be scattered and weak as the day is just getting going and instability is all over the place. To be more specific, the warm, moist air is starting to come into the Southeast, but some of the upper level qualities are further north. The next image shows the area of concern for the best chance of severe weather at 1 PM.

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This one shows a larger area of concern, but there is a smaller embedded area where most of things we look for, such as CAPE, warm air advection, low level jet, positive vorticity advection, etc. line up so we will watch this area as it has the highest risk of the severe weather to occur. This area will have the best chances of seeing a tornado and the damaging winds.

As we move on into the 4 PM hour the area shifts to the east some and isn’t as big as before.

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The area of interest is smaller than the last, but the area with the highest risk is a little bigger. The reason for that is because it is getting to the warmest part of the day and on top of that the low level jet and many other factors are coming together at this time for us to have some concern that the pink shaded area. As we move on to 7 PM tomorrow evening the highest risk areas are smaller and more focused on particular areas.

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By this time it appears that the highest risk areas are away from the viewing area, but any locations between the two high risk areas are of concern as the factors we look for become more isolated.

The final hour we looked at and will show is 10 PM where the area of interest becomes much smaller, but the area with the highest risk covers the eastern part of Central Alabama which includes Phenix City, Al and Columbus, GA.

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By this time things will be quieting down as the peak heating of the day is long gone, but the squall line, which is the culprit of most of this, will be the cause of most of the severe weather which means damaging wind will be the primary threat as the storms that built up through the day start to die down and with all of the mass it holds in the air it has to fall which will creat some strong winds.

This is how things look now and there can always be some changes to the atmosphere that could change this some, but this covers the general area that we expect severe weather to occur. We will keep you posted throughout tomorrow and even tonight for the latest and to keep you up to date.

-StormTEAM 4 / Gamma 9 Weather Senior Meteorologist Michael Vasquez


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