Severe Weather UPDATE

29 01 2013

The air over Alabama has been warm and juicy all day long with temps in near 80 and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is priming the atmosphere for tomorrow’s Severe Weather event. Since last night, we have had a few changes. The models are now slowing down the squall line and having more CAPE (energy) on hand. This is NOT what we wanted to see happen as this will further destabilize the atmosphere tomorrow.

Timing: With the squall line slowing down, we are now looking for the threat to being in Mobile & west Alabama around 4-6 am/CT and leave our eastern counties around Phenix City / Columbus around 4pm/ET (3pm/CT).

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What to Expect:  Since the squall line is slowing down and more CAPE will be available, the damaging wind risk will remain High since we will have very strong winds only a few thousand feet above Alabama. The threat for storms developing in advance of the line has now come into play due to the increase in CAPE and warmer temperatures expected. In this type of environment, these are the storms you have to watch for Tornadoes. With that said, we are increasing the Risk of Tornadoes across the area to Moderate.

Severe Threat

East Alabama: We are going to have to watch what happens in East Alabama/West Georgia very closely. Any breaks in the clouds will further destabilize the atmosphere. Since the squall line is expected to move in later, the air in this part of the state will be richer. This could lead to not only having cells developing in advance of the line but, the squall line re-intensifying as it moves over the area. With all this said, we & the Storm Prediction Center have placed an “enhanced risk” over East AL/West GA

Right now is a great time to go over your safety plan and make sure you have a properly working NOAA Weather Radio with fresh battery. If you don’t have one, you can get one at your local Walgreen’s or Wal-Mart for only $30.00 You can also download our MyWarn app that can wake you up in the middle of the night right here.

Stay tuned to us throughout the evening and all day tomorrow for the latest. We’ll have the whole team here to keep you updated during the Severe Weather.

-Patrick Bigbie, StormTEAM 4 / Gamma 9 Weather Chief Meteorologist





Stormy Wednesday

28 01 2013

It’s been warm for the last several days and when we enjoy the warm temps this early, we have to pay the price. That price is severe weather & all signs are pointing in that direction. The Storm Prediction Center currently has us under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather on Wednesday.

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What to Expect: It appears at this time the main threat will be a squall line moving through the area with damaging winds being the main threat but a few spin-up tornadoes are still possible. We are currently thinking that the threat will begin early in the morning on Wednesday around 4:00am/CT for Mobile and last through the afternoon for East Alabama / West Georgia. This timing may change as several of the models are trying to bring it in a few hour on either side of this.

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We are fairly confident on the damaging wind threat for the area as strong winds aloft will only be a few thousand feet above the ground. The one thing we are not sure on yet is will we have enough CAPE (energy) available for storms to develop in advance of the line. At this time, we do not but, should we have just a little bit more CAPE become available or we have breaks in the clouds that morning, we would have the risk of storms forming in advance of that line and that would increase the risk for tornadoes across the area.

Here is what we think the threat risk will be for our area on Wednesday but this may change as time goes on.

Severe Threat

Regardless of the threat and timing, right now would be a great time to go over your safety plan and make sure you have a properly working NOAA Weather Radio with fresh battery. If you don’t have one, you can get one at your local Walgreen’s or Wal-Mart for only $30.00 You can also download our MyWarn app that can wake you up in the middle of the night. You can download that here.

Stay Tuned, We’ll know more tomorrow as more data becomes available.

-Patrick Bigbie, StormTEAM 4 / Gamma 9 Weather Chief Meteorologist