Christmas Day Severe Threat

23 12 2012

Christmas time is almost here and we have been looking forward to all the Christmas cheer with Christmas dinner and opening presents with the family.  This Christmas, however, is going to be pretty wet on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but Christmas Day is the one we are concerned with.  We have been watching it and as we continue to monitor it the conditions seem to get worse.  Here is what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for Christmas Day.

XMasDaySVRWX

Another Slight Risk for our viewers and parts of Mississippi and Texas and almost all of Louisiana.  We saw this from the last forecast discussion this far out, but this one has something different that the last one didn’t.

XMasDaySVRWXPERC

Here is where things change.  The last severe storm event we had on Thursday only had a 15% chance of severe weather.  Christmas Day is looking to have a 30% chance of severe weather which extends from Mobile, AL; Eutaw, AL; Jackson, MS; Alexander, LA; New Orleans, LA; and all the places in the middle of those.  The hatched area indicates a 10% or greater chance of significant severe weather which includes the previous locations and even Tuscaloosa, AL; Selma, AL; and Monroeville, AL.

What makes this event so much different than the last is where the low pressure of the system will be.

XMasDaySVRWXLow

A low, an area of low pressure, will develop in South Central Texas Tuesday morning and will progress towards the Northeast throughout the day.  As it does that, it will push warm, moist air ahead of it unstabilizing the air over MS/AL.  As it approaches the MS/AL state line Tuesday night the center of the low pressure system will be far enough south where we have a good chance of severe weather and even a few tornadoes are possible.  This is actually really close to where the low was Thursday night on Dec. 14th when tornado warnings popped up all over the Southwest part of Alabama and even a tornado in Mobile.

All of the ingredients that were discussed in the last severe weather event are there this time, but there is more of it.

We will keep you updated as we continue to monitor the event as it we get closer to Christmas Day.

-Michael Vasquez


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